Scott Tobin, CEO of software consulting firm Envorso, has a message for automotive executives amid their retreat from electric vehicles: Don’t slow down on software development.
“The software progression has to continue despite what your EV plans do,” Tobin told Tech Brew during a Reuters automotive conference in Detroit in October.
Envorso helps companies navigate the industry’s ongoing transformation around software, something Tobin is very familiar with after spending decades working on vehicle development at Ford.
The way software is being used in vehicles is rapidly changing. Today’s vehicles might have over 100 electronic control modules, or ECUs, responsible for functions like rolling down windows or locking doors, backed by millions of lines of code and held together by vast amounts of wiring. Tobin refers to this system as a “spaghetti mess.”
“There’s products out there that are like that and they’re good. You could do it,” he said. “But I could also cut the grass with scissors.”
Now, automakers are placing big bets on software-defined vehicles (SDVs), which can be continuously upgraded as new capabilities become available. Tobin worries, however, that delays on electrification could prompt some automakers to lose momentum on software, as these two advancements have been closely linked.
“I’ve been cautioning OEMs and others that, just because the pendulum is swinging a little bit away from EVs right now, do not let up on your development of software-defined vehicles,” he said. “Because ICE engines and hybrids have complex problems that can be solved through software capability, just like EVs do.”
Defining characteristics: Software-defined vehicles feature centralized compute systems that enable automakers to improve existing features, add new ones, fix issues that need to be repaired, and drastically reduce the amount of wiring and ECUs in a vehicle. The concept is frequently compared to the evolution of the smartphone.
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“You’ll improve quality, you’ll improve efficiency, you’ll improve the OEMs’ return,” Tobin said, “and you’ll improve the customer’s experience, most importantly.”
EV startup Rivian, for example, recently introduced a second-gen version of its inaugural vehicle lineup that included a new zonal architecture with 10 fewer ECUs, wiring reductions, and a more powerful compute system.
Rivian is among the pure-play EV companies that have distinguished themselves with their software capabilities—to the point that automotive giant Volkswagen earlier this year announced a joint venture to develop software-defined vehicle platforms for both companies.
Volvo and Daimler Truck recently said they, too, plan to jointly develop a software-based manufacturing platform for heavy-duty trucks.
During a panel discussion at the Reuters conference, Sabrina Yuan, VP of strategy and business development for VW’s software division, acknowledged that startups have some advantages in software.
“This is not an easy process, because while we are doing that, we cannot lose the brand heritage, the driving experience, [which is] why people are buying a Porsche to begin with,” she said. “Clean-slate innovation is always easier than a transformation.”
To that end, automakers like GM and Ford increasingly are looking to Silicon Valley to fulfill some of their emerging software talent needs. Legacy manufacturers are investing heavily in software in a bid to open up new, subscription-based revenue streams.
“Overall, SDVs offer both customer benefits and simplification benefits for car manufacturers,” Yves Bonnefont, Stellantis’s chief software officer, told S&P Global Mobility.
Research firm IDTechEx forecast a 35% compound annual growth rate in automotive software-related revenue by 2034 and estimated that software-related revenue could be worth more than $700 billion annually by then.
Analysts expect that in the next decade, “almost every new vehicle will have the functionality of smartphone-like over-the-air updates, becoming safer, smarter, and software-defined.”