From Wall Street to Detroit to Silicon Valley, all eyes will be on the Warner Brothers lot in Burbank, California, on October 10, when Tesla is slated to reveal its highly anticipated robotaxi.
The event could mark a major step forward for CEO Elon Musk’s efforts to turn the electric-vehicle maker into an AI and robotics company worthy of a $1 trillion-plus valuation. But given the challenges of deploying autonomous vehicles at scale—as well as Tesla’s own spotty track record on safety and deadlines—it’s also sure to generate a lot of questions.
“It’s a big deal,” Ram Machness, chief business officer at radar technology company Arbe, told Tech Brew. “Everybody is looking at it.”
It comes as Tesla faces myriad challenges including growing competition, recent financial results that underwhelmed Wall Street, and scrutiny into its self-driving vehicle tech. It also comes just before the company reports Q3 earnings on October 23.
The reveal is expected to have a significant impact on Tesla’s stock.
In a July research note following the news that Tesla was delaying the event from August to October, Wedbush Securities analysts wrote that they “believe a linchpin to Tesla reaching $1 trillion-plus valuation and ultimately higher over the next year is contingent on the AI/[Full Self-Driving] story materializing into a monetization path over the coming years.”
On the company’s Q2 earnings call, Musk reiterated his view that “the biggest differentiator for Tesla is autonomy.”
With all of that in mind, here are a few themes to watch for come October 10. (Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment.)
Lights, camera…lidar? One of the things Machness and his peers in the AV sector will be watching for is whether Tesla continues to rely heavily on cameras as the sensors for its self-driving tech system.
Tesla has eschewed the approach of many of its competitors, which use sensors like radars and lidar (light detection and ranging) in addition to cameras. Musk has called lidar a “crutch,” though it was revealed earlier this year that Tesla is actually a major customer of lidar company Luminar.
“All the players that tried, all the players today that are in the market, all the players that are planning to be in the market, all the players that were in the market and exited the market, are saying that cameras alone will not solve this problem,” Machness said. “[Tesla] did an amazing job with the camera. But you must have a different, independent sensor on top of the camera. I don’t know anyone that disputes it.”
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‘How autonomous is autonomous?’: Machness expects the event to be closely watched both by legacy automakers who are developing autonomous driving features for personal vehicles, as well as by robotaxi companies like Waymo and Cruise.
“Is it really going to be autonomous? Or how autonomous is autonomous? That’s one of the biggest questions that everybody is looking to answer,” he said.
Tesla calls its semi-autonomous vehicle system “Full Self-Driving,” but the technology does not, in fact, enable full self-driving; it requires supervision from the driver.
Leaf Jiang, founder of NODAR, which develops 3D vision systems for AVs, said he’ll be curious to see if Tesla takes similar creative license with how it defines what a robotaxi is.
“I think there’s a lot of folks that would be shocked to see an L4 vehicle coming out of Tesla, without any sort of indication that they’re close to that,” Jiang said, referring to the level of vehicle autonomy that does not require human supervision.
Tick, tock: Wall Street already is pressing Musk on when its robotaxi will be ready to hit the road. During Q2 earnings, he said that 2025 “seems highly probable,” but Tesla is notorious for blowing deadlines.
And some investment analysts appear to be concerned that regulatory approvals could hamper the timing of the rollout. On the July call, analysts quizzed Musk about what type of approvals the company would need. There have been signals that the robotaxi could be built without a steering wheel or pedals, which would require Tesla to secure a Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards exception—something that’s tripped up some of its competitors.
Musk claimed that regulatory approval would not be a “limiting factor,” but some analysts remain skeptical.
Whatever else is revealed, Machness and Jiang emphasized that it’s crucial for Tesla to demonstrate that its product is 100% safe, especially given some major setbacks both Tesla and some of its competitors in the AV sector recently have faced.
“It needs to be 100% safe. Not 95%. Not 96%. Not 97%,” Machness said. “That’s a tough bar to achieve. So, I think that’s what everybody on the autonomous side will be looking for.”
Correction 10/03/24: This piece has been updated to correct the date Tesla is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2024 earnings.