How Algorithms Are Helping to Determine Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout

In Contagion, the vaccine rollout is determined via birthday lottery. In our (slightly) less dystopian reality, it's determined by algorithm.

How it works

A secretive-but-familiar name is helping lead the vaccine distribution charge: Palantir. The data-mining firm teamed up with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on “Tiberius,” a software platform primed for use by states, territories, and federal agencies.

Tiberius can help make quick decisions on where to send the vaccine—and how much may be needed—in any jurisdiction. And that’s where potential problems can come in.

Behind the curtain: Tiberius relies on population data from the U.S. Census Bureau and The CIA World Factbook. But the U.S. Census regularly undercounts certain groups—for instance, Black men aged 30 to 49, reports VentureBeat. And the Covid-19 death rate for Black Americans is more than twice that of white Americans.

Zoom out: This isn't the only issue that will arise from AI's use in determining vaccine distribution. Some states have developed in-house distribution algorithms, which have their own issues with transparency.

And some organizations are already under fire for concrete issues—e.g., Stanford’s rule-based (not machine learning-based) algorithm, which reportedly prioritized physicians working remotely over patient-facing medical residents.